Safe Side Of The Ropes

Like a rock pool in the desert, boxing embraces a stacked Golden Boy card this weekend as Juan Manuel Marquez rematches Juan Diaz at the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino in Vegas. After an annus horribilus for fight afficionados, one which must have Ring Magazine’s team of writers already dabbing away sweat from furrowed brows when looking ahead to their annual year end awards, Saturday’s schedule may well tick a few nomination boxes yet.

The duo first met back in February 2009, in a match-up viewed as a cross roads collision between an ageing Mexican war horse (in Marquez) and his action packed heir in waiting. After bursting out of his blocks to stagger and outwork Marquez early, Diaz fell apart in round eight after suffering a badly lacerated right eyelid and was promptly taken out in the ninth. It was a wonderful brawl brimming with rare skill, guts and industry; one which instantly cleared itself a space amid the pantheon of legendary Aztec barnburners.

What a difference 17 months makes. Prior to episode one, Marquez was riding on the back of a thrilling triumph over Joel Casamayor for the Ring lightweight championship belt, whilst Diaz had mitigated his mugging at the hands of Nate Campbell with a swashbuckling victory over Michael Katsidis.

Fast forward to present day and things have changed somewhat. The last time the pair entered the bull ring, they were taunted by flashy, quick fisted Americans, fighters fleet of foot and deft of movement, matadors if you will, who put their Mexican rivals to the sword with a flash of their muleta and a swish of their estoque. Marquez was flattened and toyed with by a comebacking Floyd Mayweather whilst Diaz, on the other hand, found himself tormented by a vengeful Paulie Malignaggi, winding up on the wrong end of unanimous decision in the process.

This weekend they come together once again at crucial junctures for both.

Marquez will seek to control his man with the jab, dipping inside on occasion with left hooks to head and body and straight right hands down the pipe. The punches he eventually brought to bear on Diaz, his devastating uppercuts, may prove pivotal. A master craftsman and counterpuncher, rarely will he turn down a “damn the torpedoes” style exchange yet, more often than not, he’ll adjust to his opponent throughout the opening stages of a fight before coming on through the middle rounds once the lock has been picked.

Diaz, meanwhile, can only battle one way. The pudgy graduate from Houston, Texas will career forward with his chin down, looking to trap Marquez on the ropes before firing off rapid streams of combination punches. He’ll be keen to jump on Marquez from the off once again, crawling all over him before the veteran has time to establish his left hand, timing and distance. He’ll be attempting to crowd Marquez, only this time without being countered silly in the process. Intelligent pressure will be the blueprint for “The Baby Bull” and trainer Ronnie Shields.

The unknowable question surrounding both men at this stage of the game is just what exactly do either of them have left in the gas tank?

At 37, Marquez is nearing the cut off point for great fighters performing at an elite level and having the capability to provide exceptional in-ring feats. A grizzled campaigner who has warred against the likes of Manny Pacquiao (twice), Marco Antonio Barrera, Joel Casamayor, Manuel Medina, Chris John and Mayweather, he holds a career ledger of 50-5-1 (37), is the current lightweight king and holds a number three rating in the pound for pound charts.

Still relatively young at 26, Diaz’s bulldozing, volume punching style lends itself to quick burnout. After racing to 33 fights unbeaten, he suffered a harrowing defeat to Nate Campbell in March 2008 and has gone 2-2 since. At 35-3 (17), he is currently unrated by The Ring after his less than stellar foray up to 140 lbs, yet his past form at this poundage offers better guidance towards his chances that his invisibility in the rankings.

Marquez will be returning to lightweight after piling on the pounds to meet Mayweather at welterweight (the fight was originally pencilled in as a catch weight bout, however, Floyd reneged on the arrangement and paid Marquez a forfeit fee to fight heavy). As we’ve seen before, coming down from a higher weight division can debilitate a fighter and rob them of their legs, evidenced recently after Roy Jones, Oscar De la Hoya and Chris Byrd reduced in weight only to take thumpings from Antonio Tarver, Manny Pacquiao and Shaun George respectively. If Marquez is weakened after having had to shed excess poundage, then the last guy he wants to see bolting at him from the other side of the ring is the hyperactive Diaz.

When looking for a winner, I side with the veteran Marquez. Despite Diaz’s pretty persuasive argument, namely that he can win by performing as he did for the first half of fight one throughout the entire length of fight two, I’m not convinced that he has the wherewithal to pull off such a feat. Against Campbell, Marquez and to a degree Malignaggi (in their rematch), Diaz did not respond well once he tasted his own blood. To wager on him in this one, you’d have to hope that he could sail home safe from harm, and against a hardcore hand thrower of Marquez’s ilk, I fail to see how that can be possible.

One of the more cerebral fighters of the past decade or two, I expect Marquez to get to work with his devastating uppercuts from the get go, looking to halt his rampaging foe before he’s even managed to paw at the dirt or snort steam through his nostrils. In a crowd pleasing battle (how can it not be?), look for Marquez to run out a worthy winner on the scorecards after a compelling ruckus which may serve as a curtain call for both.

Sky Bet currently have Marquez posted as a whopping 2/7 favourite, with Diaz great value at 5/2. Marquez to win on points returns good odds at 13/8, however, I’d probably be willing to hedge my wager with a few bob on Marquez to win by late stoppage (rounds 7 to 12) at 9/4.

The undercard is rammed to the gunnels, which for once probably merits crawling out of bed to complete a bit of night shift for viewers in the UK.

One of the most underrated fighters of the past decade, the Cuban maestro Joel Casamayor (37-4-1, 22 kayos) gives it one last whirl against Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero (26-1-1, 18 kayos), strangely up at light welterweight. Guerrero began his career as a featherweight and less than a year ago, he annexed a super featherweight alphabet title in victory over Malcolm Klassen. “El Cepillo”, meanwhile, has campaigned at lightweight for the majority of the last five years, duelling with men such as Marquez, Katsidis and the late Diego Corrales.

As highly as I rate Casamayor, at 39 years old it’s a heck of an ask for him to overcome a fighter as relatively fresh and ambitious as Guerrero. Whilst I wouldn’t be altogether surprised to see an upset win for the veteran, I’ll plump for youth to trump nous with a ten round decision win.

In a clash of unbeaten middleweights, Daniel Jacobs (20-0, 17 kayos) takes his first step up in class against Russian, Dmitry Pirog (16-0, 13 kayos) whilst at lightweight, there’s a cracking bout on offer between Venezuelan, Jorge Linares (28-1, 18 kayos) and the ubiquitous Rocky Juarez (28-6-1, 20 kayos). Look for Jacobs and Linares to build themselves a platform for the future with hard fought wins over stubborn opposition, although they may have to go the full route in doing so.

Sakio Bika (28-3-2, 19 kayos), the brawler who gave Joe Calzaghe so much bother a few years back takes on Jean Paul Mendy (28-0-1, 16 kayos) and he should prove far too tough and seasoned for the untested Frenchman and can win by stoppage.

Viewers also get to cast their eyes over a pair of super prospects as Britain’s George Groves makes his U.S. bow against Mexican trial horse Alfredo Contreras (11-7-1, 5 kayos) and the highly touted Californian, Frankie Gomez (4-0, 4 kayos) tackles Ricardo Calazada (2-2, 1 early).

Sky televise live in the UK.