Boy, this is a tough call. In a fight as closely balanced as this one (where on earth have the bookmakers plucked the idea that Cotto is a 3-1 on favourite from?), we’re really looking at fine details and small margins when looking to pick a winner. Matched perfectly in terms of skill, size, power, experience, ring smarts etc etc it’s the intangibles which I’ve had to fall back on in order swing the pendulum in one particular direction.
Look for Cotto to attempt to take control from the off, getting in and out, firing his punches off in sharp bursts and looking to box cleverly from the outskirts of the ring. Clottey I feel will be the more accurate of the pair however, landing a heap of left hooks to head and body throughout and coming on down the stretch like a steam train; I just see him running out of rounds here.
Clottey seems a hard luck story waiting to happen. He was mightily aggrieved when disqualified against Carlos Baldomir in a fight he was winning; he also looked very comfortable up in class against Margarito before zinging his mitts.
In his last outing I saw him administer a brutal and efficient beat down against Zab Judah, the onslaught being halted after Clottey punched open a gash over Judah’s eye. Firstly, the ref ruled it an accidental butt (it wasn’t) which took it to the scorecards. Secondly, the Ghanian only just managed to squeak the verdict on two of the judge’s cards by a single point. He was almost jibbed in that one………royally….and if he couldn’t sway the judges with that display, he’ll have even more trouble with the pro Cotto crowd roaring every time their man lets fly.
I see Cotto finding favour with Compubox, however Clottey being the one inflicting greater damage by landing the more hurtful and effective shots which will leave Cotto looking the beaten fighter.
Despite this, I’m going for the man from Accra to lose a contentious decision which will probably win him countless new fans yet leave his diary blank in terms of future big fight dates. As always in nip and tuck battles of this nature (Hopkins Calzaghe was the last to leave me this stumped), it might be a plan to punt a sneaky few bob on the draw, we’re due one in a big fight (hey it’s 20 years this week since Tommy Hearns had it stuck to him in the Leonard rematch, how’s that for an omen?!!).
If however Cotto has missed even a beat after the severe whupping he took from Margarito then he’s in big trouble. Clottey has the ability to make him revisit that painful evening all over again, this time with no excuses.
I have a feeling Clottey wins this by late stoppage if he lets his hands go a bit more. Too often he lets rounds slip by not working enough. I think tonight we will see Clottey open up more than we’re used to seeing from him. If this was before the Tony fight I’d have picked Cotto in a heartbeat. But that fight left a question mark over Cotto’s mental state in my opinion. Could Tony have had “extra force” in his punches in that fight? Sure. But then maybe he also had that advantage over Williams and Clottey, neither of whom wilted the way Cotto did. I think, after looking sharp early on, Cotto will be worn down by Clottey’s slow and steady pressure, plus the fact he’ll be disheartned by his punches not having the desired effect on the Ghanaian, and I predict he’ll be stopped somewhere around the 11th.
I’ve been checking interviews with Clottey and he seems to realise that he needs to throw more punches and pressurise Cotto in order to get the job done. Counterpunching might not be enough tonight, he needs to put the heat on.
I can see Cotto flurrying before catching a heavy counter in return leaving the judges with the dilemma of quantity versus quality, I can even see Cotto in trouble a couple of times.
I thought I’d start making predictions on the blog to freshen it up a bit and draw more folk in, what a fight to start with!!
I’m doing ok of late, had Cintron over Angulo and Berto over Collazo, this one’s tricky though!!!
If you’re correct Dave I’ll be hounding you for picks in future!!
Well I did pick Hatton to beat Pacquaio, so I’d keep my money in my pocket when listening to David Lee’s tips if I were you, lol.
Overrall though, not doing too bad with my underdog picks this year. I tipped Dunne to beat Cordoba, Bouzaine to beat Napa and Froch to beat Taylor (I know Froch wasn’t a big underdog but you’d be surprised at how few people were tipping him to win).
This one’s a genuine pick ‘em however (I agree about the ridiculous odds by the way) and one that could go either way. There’s just still too many questions about Cotto that remain unanswered since the Margarito battering for me to favour him. We know what we’re gonna get from Clottey, but how will Cotto react if his back’s against the wall?
It’s fascinating stuff and I for one cannot wait!
Well, not a bad prediction at all!! I’m feeling very nostrodamus-like today!!
Can’t comment too much as I have as yet not managed to see the flipping thing (thank you Setanta).
First they switch it to Setanta 2 (why?????) then they backheel the 7pm replay for……..gulp……golf…….no wonder they’re in the mire…..there goes my subscription for one.
Hope you get to see it Haz. Fantastic fight. Cotto fought with the heart of a warrior and Clottey fought with the brain of a knucklehead! Cotto was toast after the eight round and Clottey inexplicably took his foot off the gas. In fact, in the last three rounds he simply stopped punching. Reminded me a small bit of Quartey v Oscar. Ghanaian’s must score fights in their heads……. badly!
Just caught the 8pm replay on Setanta Dave, firstly cracking fight, that’s why I still watch this sport, thoroughly enjoyed it.
The cut really bothered Cotto throughout the middle rounds, must be hell fighting with your sight hampered, however (and this’ll sound bizarre) he was lucky. If the cut had been over his right eye, he’d have been toast, all Clottey’s best work comes with his left hand, he looked a tad lost trying to land rights. For what it’s worth I scored it:
Cotto-Clottey
10-9
9-10
10-9
10-9
9-10
10-9
9-10
9-10
9-10
9-10
10-9
10-9
—–
114-114
Bit of a bummer it came out a draw, mind you I had trouble scoring the 8th, almost scored it even which would have given Cotto the nod, can’t really argue for anyone scoring it a point either way, although the judge who scored for Cotto by 5 should be suitably admonished (bloody struck off!!).
Great comparison with Clottey and Quartey, they fight pretty similiar, especially when jabbing, pity for Josh he doesn’t own Ike’s power.
Quartey also felt robbed in a couple of fights, namely against Oscar and Vargas.
If Clottey had only managed to be more active but credit Cotto, he boxed superbly against a bigger, stronger guy (no way are they naturally the same weight) with a crab like guard; he did a top job.
Unfortunately I wouldn’t give him a prayer against Pacquiao, I quite like him so hope he gets Mosley or Berto next. Clottey should fight Collazo, at least one of them would finally get a win……..unless it’s scored as above!!!
Clottey should now hound Berto until he agrees to fight him. I think he’d chew him up and, with the WBC in his possession, it would put him right back in the picture.
As for Cotto v Pacquiao, I think at 147 it’s a great fight and no walkover for Manny in my opinion. But at 142, which is what Roach wants it at, forget it! Cotto would have no legs at that weight and Pacquiao would put on a hurting akin to the Oscar fight.
I find it funny that with all these names being thrown out as possible opponents for Manny (Mosley, Cotto, Mayweather etc.) there’s one name that never gets a mention. JM Marquez. Despite drawing with and beating Marquez (both fights I scored for JM), Pacquiao has never truly proven his superiority over the Mexican.
How’s about a third fight?
Is there a more significant fight in boxing than Manny-JMM 3? Ok I’ll spot you Pac-Mayweather but I’d doubt there are any more.
I’ve a feeling Pacquiao will have another couple of pension boosting fights before he settles the score with his nemesis. Valero, Mayweather then JMM, wouldn’t be a bad finish would it?