Safe Side Of The Ropes

By: Andrew Harrison

Sep 15 2009

Category: angel manfredy, floyd mayweather, joel casamayor, juan diaz, juan manuel marquez, manny pacquiao, ricky hatton

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For a fight that has been slow to sell, Floyd Mayweather’s return to arms against Juan Manuel Marquez this weekend has kept a lot of folk chattering. Every man and his dog has an opinion on how this fight will pan out, a direct result of the intangibles at work here, a gambler’s nightmare. Despite Floyd starting somewhere in the region of four to one on favourite, there are good judges predicting a monumental upset victory for the Mexican lightweight champion Marquez, citing Mayweather’s recent inactivity as the likely stumbling block.

Mayweather, the former pound for pound king of boxing has not fought since December 2007, when on the eighth night of the month, he turned back the determined but ultimately overmatched light welterweight champion Ricky Hatton in Las Vegas. Thumbing his nose at a lucrative return match with Oscar De la Hoya, the fighter who (on paper at least) came closest to stripping him of his spotless record, the speedball from Michigan surprisingly scooped up his bargaining chips and took an extended sabbatical.

His motives for returning have been much debated and remain unclear; his own assertions that he pined for the sport have fallen on dubious ears. What is not up for discussion however is the fact that he’s returning against a great fighter and the general consensus second ranked fighter ‘pound for pound’ in the sport. What has offended a vast number of fight fans however is the fact that Marquez is not a welterweight, not even close in fact. The studious veteran from Distrito Federal has waged the majority of his career in the featherweight division, before he bulked up in order to chase big money fights and a certain Pacman, at initially super feather and subsequently lightweight.

Marquez’s lightweight venture thus far has amounted to a mere two night’s work. The first came against one of the most underrated fighters of the past decade, the Cuban Joel Casamayor, in a fight for Ring magazine’s lightweight championship. Marquez boxed superbly, flattening Casamayor in the eleventh after a flurry, culminating in a big right hand which landed square on Casa’a mug. Despite the champion rising bravely, Marquez quickly terminated matters at 2.55 of the round.

Dinamita’s last outing was a tenaciously contested battle against pressure fighting Juan Diaz. Hurt and disorganised early, Marquez was able to adjust to his young challenger’s style (as is his wont), better timing his attacks and slowly working his way into the ascendancy. The turning point came after Diaz suffered a cut in round eight, the sight of his own blood visibly panicking the Baby Bull. The young punching machine suddenly began to splutter as the accuracy of Marquez and his use of the uppercut in particular saw him take over. A hard combination in the ninth sent Diaz down face first, his courage in rising rewarded only with a concussion delivered via a sledgehammer right uppercut.

Marquez has managed to squeeze one other outing in whilst Floyd has been resting up, this one coming prior to the above two in March 2008, his epic war at super featherweight against nemesis Manny Pacquiao, the man who now reigns as boxing’s finest exponent.

So to Mayweather-Marquez, a fight which will take place at welterweight, two full divisions removed from Marquez’s more recent exploits, which plainly favours the naturally bigger and stronger American. It’s a battle which pits two natural counter-punchers together, oil and water in terms of creating the right mix for an entertaining fight. Let’s be honest here, this one could be an absolute stinker; however I believe Marquez’s involvement will ultimately save the day and lead to an eventful evening.

The problem for counter-punchers when facing other counter-punchers, is that at some point they will be required to lead off, otherwise we’d be left with two guys standing eyeballing each other all night. When one of them does lead, they are of course placed at an instant disadvantage, being out of their element somewhat. The question here is thus; which one of them will risk the wrath of the crowd by standing off? Despite the need for Floyd to look good in this one, he isn’t likely to give in to his audience; his only concern is to win, however he has to do it. Marquez, the man who fights for national pride, who has an inherent honesty in the way that he operates between the ropes, is more likely to be the one who attempts to make the fight and I feel this is where he’ll fail.

I foresee Mayweather crouching and back-pedalling with his weight distributed on his back leg, before springing forward with his patented arrowing right hands and whipping left hooks, a punch Marquez is susceptible to. It’s a punch that flattened him in the Pacquiao rematch, it’s the punch Diaz staggered him with……it’s also one of Floyd’s pets. There is a real danger here that Marquez will be dropped, perhaps numerous times ala Diego Corrales, putting him in peril on the cards and further strengthening Floyd’s position as counter attacker; Juan hasn’t been hard to find in recent fights.

In fact without the long layoff to factor in, there may have been an opportunity for Floyd to stagger Marquez before he even had a chance to get started, smothering him in an avalanche of accurate punches (much as he did with Angel Manfredy) and forcing the referee to call a halt very early during proceedings. Whilst I don’t totally discount this idea, one would have to assume Floyd’s timing will pose him problems in the first couple of rounds, which make this a less likely scenario than if he were in his pomp.

When examining fighters who have returned after considerable layoffs there is a tendency for them to fade late in fights after struggling for timing early-being fit and being fighting fit are two different matters entirely. One of Mayweather’s strengths traditionally, has been his ability to grow in stature throughout the course of the fight, something which may be compromised here and therefore open for Marquez to exploit. Juan himself tends to come on in fights, working his way through problems encountered- be it cuts, knockdowns or stylistic conundrums, he finds a way to overcome. If he is able to administer a concerted and effective body attack, this too should help his cause.

When searching for ways in which Marquez can pull this one off I have explored all avenues. The fact that he’s more battle hardened, that he’s been active, that he’s possibly the best fighter Floyd has ever faced, his accuracy, his combination punching, his hard right hand (especially his deadly right uppercut), his heart and tenacity, perhaps even his speed. In spite of all of this, I don’t think it will be enough.

Floyd is no longer the phenom we saw at super featherweight, there were signs of decline even before his layoff. He looked a slower and a more vulnerable fighter in the early rounds of the Hatton fight than I’d ever seen previously. If he’s back for the duration, I think we’ll see him tested down the line; in fact the analysis process I’ve completed here has me convinced that a certain Filipino buzz-saw has his number.

It comes back to styles and I don’t think Juan matches up well here at all. Conventional wisdom surmises that Floyd’s conservatism will prohibit him from anything other than a decision victory here however I think that he’ll stun Marquez with a left hook and never let him off his line. Despite Marquez’s wonderful fighting abilities and fabulous fighting heart, I fear that once hurt, he’ll find himself subjected to a Mayweather blitzkrieg.

With one of the most deadly accurate fighters in boxing’s recent history crawling all over Marquez, the referee will be left with little alternative but to call a halt to proceedings, somewhere around the middle rounds. Juan will give it everything and pose Floyd real problems with his punch output, landing plenty of leather on his mongoose-like opponent, especially downstairs. I just feel that welterweight is too much of a handicap for the great man; the aces lie with Floyd in this one.