Safe Side Of The Ropes

By: Andrew Harrison

Nov 01 2009

Category: carl thompson, david haye, evander holyfield, jean marc mormeck, john ruiz, nikolay valuev, ruslan chagaev

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It’s shaping up to be a November to remember with a clutch of fabulous fights on the agenda, all full of intrigue and all closely contested; hell for tipsters, heaven for fans.

I’m breaking the habit of a lifetime here in posting up next week’s big fight preview and prediction early. I feel I have enough on Messrs Haye and Valuev to stick my head on the chopping block, there’s no need to try and grasp the ‘vibe’ of big fight week in order to sway me hither or thither for this one.

Here’s the skinny; Valuev is a rather average fighter whose relative success can be attributed to two things; his extraordinary size for a human being as well as a dogged determination to learn a craft which clearly does not come naturally to him.

Haye meanwhile is as talented as they come. Fearless, powerful and athletic yet not without flaw, there are valid suspicions over both Haye’s stamina and punch resistance. These weaknesses were exploited by cruiserweight warhorse Carl ‘The Cat’ Thompson five years ago and are precisely the attributes a fighter needs to have in their tool box in order to defeat the colossal WBA titlist.

Thompson, a fighter capable of absorbing quite inhumane levels of punishment, played to his strengths against the Bermondsey banger, who succumbed to an all too familiar puncher’s folly. Convinced that anybody he tapped on the chin would promptly roll over in front of him, he tailored his training to suit.

Big mistake.

Haye gassed out and was halted in five, however it was a blow which Haye believes helped to shape him into the fighter he is today. Rededication and resurrection following soon after.

Valuev’s also has a sole defeat on his record. ‘The Beast from the East’ as he’s known, was outpointed in 2007 by a man recently used as a punching bag by Wlad Klitschko, Ruslan Chagaev. The Uzbek boxed a well ordered and strategic fight in Stuttgart that evening, employing constant movement to keep his lumbering opponent off balance and unable to set his feet correctly in orde to punch with any effectiveness.

There have though been instances when Valuev seemed rather fortunate to have his hand raised. John Ruiz and Evander Holyfield both suffered controversial decision defeats to ‘the Russian Giant’ when crossing the drink to battle him in Europe. Haye too will be boxing away from home, the fight taking place in Nuremberg, Germany, which come fight night will be a Valuev stronghold.

Valuev (as is usual) will look to set up camp in centre ring, slowly stalking Haye and looking to corner him before getting off with methodical combinations. Haye meanwhile, will circle the outer ring, presenting the big man with a constantly moving target whilst jabbing swiftly and shooting out hard right hands. I fancy we’ll also see a lot of body punching from the Londoner, something which he is adept at and which we saw glimpses of during his cruiserweight championship winning victory over Jean Marc Mormeck in Paris.

Last time out, Valuev looked vulnerable to left hooks when plodding to a debateable victory over 46 year old Evander Holyfield. It may be an area Haye can exploit however the Brit’s best work tends to comes down the right hand side and over-reaching with a big left could be inviting disaster in the shape of a Valuev counter right. 

When looking for a historical simile to draw evidence from, one can’t help but think of Max Baer bludgeoning ‘the Ambling Alp’ Primo Carnera back in 1934. Max, like Haye, was a bit of an Errol Flynn type character and a tabloid editor’s dream who found himself dwarfed by his opponent yet held an equaliser in the form of a wrecking ball right hand. Carnera, like Valuev, was a manufactured fighter who found himself trading leather for money due only to the fact that nature grew him more generously than other folk.

In the event, Baer dropped his jackass routine for the evening and fought like a man possessed, whilst Carnera displayed valour beyond the call in succumbing to a one sided drubbing.

Despite the personality similarities between Haye and Baer, a better retro template for this one may in fact be found in a bout which played out in Haye’s neck of the woods back in 1932, when Canadian Larry Gains outpointed the aforementioned Carnera despite giving away some 68 lbs in weight (Haye of course faces a far larger deficit). Snippets of that one can rather wonderfully be seen here below:

Haye, like Gains, will find himself being manhandled at regular intervals by Valuev, yet will, similarly, have little trouble finding his target with right hands. One can quite easily envision a similar performance to the ones Holyfield and Chagaev managed to pull off against the Russian, with scope for more dramatic right hands landing which will bring oohs and aahs from the crowd and find favour with the judging panel.

The biggest question mark surrounding the fight is Haye’s chin; can he really take a whack from a man who, although predominately an arm puncher, hits with more pop than anyone the Londoner has ever faced? I’m reminded of a quote from one time IBF cruiserweight titlist Glen McCrory, who after rising in weight, likened being hit by a natural and gargantuan heavyweight in Lennox Lewis, to having someone whack you over the head with a bag of wet cement.

Whilst tootling around the country last month I came across plenty of erudite judges who subscribed to the idea that once hit, Haye will fold, be it early in the fight or late and they may well be onto something. It was alarming indeed to see Haye’s legs turn to jelly when clipped by Mormeck in the second round of their contest; David was ostensibly ‘gone’ for the briefest of moments. Haye’s fitness brought him back from the brink in that one yet being walloped by a man of some 23 stone may render this Houdini act impossible if he runs into a similar crisis.

What also of Haye’s rumoured hand problems and stamina shortage? Teeing off on a man of such extraordinary dimensions is liable to trouble both so can we really bank on him lasting twelve rounds without blowing one, or both of these gaskets? Haye looked to be huffing and puffing after blowing down Monte Barrett in his last bout, yet the industry required on Saturday will surely eclipse that required to despatch the heavyweight trialhorse.

In addition, how will the 12 month layoff have affected him, will there be rust there to work off?

Questions, questions and real reasons to believe in a Valuev win then, however when selecting a winner, it comes down to something more fundamental than size and weight for me. David Haye is a far superior fighter than his opponent, and it’s this inherent quality which I feel will see him overcome the truly unique set of obstacles he faces.

A stoppage win would be spectacular and would be in perfect keeping with Haye’s headline grabbing image, however I feel that after testing the waters early and by that I mean Valuev’s chin, the Englishman will put his gambling dice away and choose instead to box his way to a clear-cut decision victory.