Pacquiao Cotto: Preview & Prediction
The last three fighters to get in the ring with Manny Pacquiao went out on their face, their stool and their back, in that order.
The Filipino buzz-saw is white hot right now and on the type of run which makes it extremely difficult for pundits to pick against him. Think Tito Trinidad in 2001, right before both he and we were given a massive reality check by Bernard Hopkins.
On Saturday evening in Vegas, Pacquiao looks to continue his rampage through boxing’s lower weight classes when he tackles Puerto Rico’s Miguel Cotto at welterweight. Cotto is currently ranked third at 147lbs by Ring Magazine and seventh in their pound for pound ratings. A former world titlist at 140, Cotto has been a fully fledged welter since winter 2006 in a division which has teemed with talent since his arrival.
The sullen superstar instantly took a title, winning the vacant WBA belt when stopping future Paul Williams conqueror, Carlos Quintana in five rounds. After a pair of dominating victories over Oktay Urkal and Zab Judah in ‘07, he scored the biggest win of his career in taking a close decision victory over future Hall of Famer, ‘Sugar’ Shane Mosley.
A nothing defence early last year against Alfonso Gomez followed, however Cotto would go on to suffer a sickening and systematic beating at the hands of the now disgraced Mexican hard man, Antonio Margarito.
After a good start which saw him box classily on the back foot, Cotto began to buckle under the intense pressure ‘The Tijuana Tornado’ brought to bear on him and physically, he began to fall apart. A battered and pulverised gargoyle, he succumbed in the eleventh, simply having nothing left to give.
Margarito’s subsequent unmasking as a cheat who attempted to employ gloves loaded with plaster and plastic inserts goes some way to explaining the extraordinary punishment Cotto endured that day.
Cotto has regrouped somewhat, winning a gimme against Britain’s Michael Jennings and a close decision over the teak tough Josh Clottey, a fight in which he suffered yet more eye damage.
Pacquiao meanwhile is unbeaten since March 2005 when he dropped a unanimous decision to the great Erik Morales all the way down at super featherweight (all three judges scored the bout 115-113). After suffering a pretty bad cut early in the fight, Pacquiao allowed his composure to slip and Morales managed to edge him with good use of the jab.
Pacquiao of course rebounded and under Freddie Roach’s tutelage has gone from being a mere great fighter to something rarely seen in boxing’s long and storied history. Pacquiao gained revenge over Morales by stoppage less than 12 months later and decisioned Oscar Larios soon after, before destroying the war torn Morales in just three rounds to close out 2006. In October 2007, he again bested the faded Marco Antonio Barrera (he had previously stopped a peak Barrera in 2003) before saying goodbye to super featherweight forever with a victory over the great Juan Manuel Marquez by the slenderest of margins.
His three fights since shot him into the stratosphere.
What was seen as a massive gamble was made to look like a cakewalk as ‘The Pacman’ rose to lightweight (Pacquaio began his career at 106 lbs) and performed masterfully against titlist David Diaz, punctuating the fight in round nine with a deadly left hand.
His next fight saw him move up to welterweight to face light middleweight Oscar De la Hoya, who’d pushed Floyd Mayweather all the way to a split decision the previous year. Oscar thought he could capitalise on his immense size advantage to sugar coat a win over a pound for pound king, yet in the event was obliterated and forced to quit on his stool after 8 tortuous rounds.
Against all logic, Pacquiao seemed to be getting better.
This was confirmed last year when he chilled long term light welterweight kingpin Ricky Hatton in just two rounds, with a left hand punch which rates alongside boxing’s finest ever one punch kayos. He now rules as both pound for pound champ and light welter boss…….and now he’s looking at those welterweights.
So to Saturday and a fight which bookmaker William Hill quotes Pacquiao as a whopping 1/3 favourite (Cotto is rather surprisingly way out at 9/4).
Pacquiao has an obvious edge in speed and will be looking to fight at his usual high tempo, picking his punches from the southpaw stance whilst getting in and out and looking to land howitzers whenever the opportunity arises. Cotto meanwhile, will have his hands high and will wait for Pacquiao to lead, before countering with hard body shots and left hooks.
Pacquiao and Roach will believe that if they can keep constant pressure on Cotto, the pipe bursting type of pressure Pacquiao brings to bear that is, the Puerto Rican will break down both physically and mentally.
Cotto and his trainer, the rookie Joe Santiago, will hope that their natural size and weight advantage will be too much for Pacquiao to deal with. They will target the Filipino’s body in a bid to slow him down and hope they can bust up Pacquiao’s with the jab in the same manner Morales and Marquez were able to, which aided their causes immensely.
Cotto has a fabulous left hand and indeed has scored knockdowns with jabs, most recently over Gomez and Clottey. It’s a weapon he will be relying on most heavily come fight night.
I can imagine both fighters having some success with these tactics, however I feel minor details may come into play here and decide victory.
Firstly, reports from Cotto’s camp would seem to indicate that the fighter has been calling most of the shots and may be in receipt of minimal tactical input from his relatively green team. Bad move, as the other side have a guy in Roach, who pays frightening attention to detail and will have already earmarked weaknesses for his charge to exploit months ago.
He’ll have seen that Cotto recoils his right hand after landing a good one on his opponent, leaving it away from his face, something Pacquiao will be looking to counter with dynamite left hooks. Oh Roach is good alright.
Cotto also tends to pull his body back from shots, twisting and turning with his head held rather high and you can bet Pacquiao will be crawling all over that loophole with punches thrown in blistering bunches.
Looking at the Philippine demi-god’s last few outings, it’s pretty difficult to find a glaring weakness. Once over, he would tend to rush in to land punches but not any more. He was also once utterly dependent on his left but again, not these days, just ask Ricky Hatton. Critics will question Diaz’s quality, De la Hoya’s condition and Hatton’s tactics yet this takes credence away from a phenom at the peak of his powers. Pacquiao has been quite awesome of late.
I have seen something though. In the Marquez rematch, after suffering eye damage, there was a point at which Pacquiao looked as if he wanted a way out of the fight. It’s something I’ve felt may rear its head again in some future bout if an opponent can inflict similar wear and tear upon him.
Despite Cotto fitting the blueprint (good jab, strong, naturally bigger, experienced, powerful) I just can’t see it being him. For me, sadly, the Margarito beating has left Cotto a faded force, perhaps more so mentally than physically, he does not look like a man who believes in himself anymore.
I was intrigued this week when reading how former tennis superstar Andre Agassi managed to read Boris Becker’s serve due to the miniscule movements he made with his tongue as he threw the ball up to hit. It was almost as if Agassi’s genius allowed him to slow time before executing a counter attack and it’s this type of skill which Pacquiao seems to possess. One mistake and it can be game, set and match to Manny.
I can’t see a distance fight, I feel Pacquiao’s dynamism will force a brawl which will see heavy flak flying in both directions with both men being hit with hard shots and hurt. As Cotto turns body snatcher to try and counter the blizzard of punches coming in his direction, Pacquiao will pepper him from multiple angels, slowly taking over the bout with the sheer volume of punches he manages to ram home.
I can see Cotto, looking beaten, succumbing to a Pacquiao fuselage against the ropes late in the fight which will force him to his knees, where he’ll be counted out. I’m reminded of Pryor v Arguello with this one, a fight which saw the more classic boxer-puncher overwhelmed by the frenetic punching of his opponent.
Pacquiao won’t require a little black bottle however, he has his own special mix which at this precise moment in time, looks quite simply unbeatable.
Hey Haz, how are you getting on?
I have a feeling Cotto is going to pull this one off, but we will need to see the Cotto who defused and out-smarted Shane Mosley a couple of years ago. If the Puerto Rican is a faded force then he will lose, simple as that. But I believe we WILL see the best Cotto that we have ever seen and, of course, he’ll need to be.
Cotto’s boxing brain is very underrated and even when things don’t go according to plan, he can make the necessary adjustments mid-fight or even in the latter stages – as we saw against Clottey.
You make a good point about Cotto’s camp, but I actually reckon he’ll be the better prepared of the two. Reports are that Manny and Freddie have been at loggerheads for weeks. Pacquiao, against Roach’s wishes, did most of his work in the Philippines. The possibility exists that Manny might have been distracted due to his iconic status in his homeland and the last time that happened the Pac-Man looked very average against blown-up super-bantam Oscar Larios. Pacquiao, who was badly hurt by a heavy right-hand in the third round, won it by a mile but looked beatable that night and if we see a similar version tonight then we can kiss the Pacquiao/Mayweather superfight goodbye.
Of course, he’s been nothing short of phenomenal as of late, but I just wonder if his new found celebrity status has gone to his head a little bit.
There are many reasons why Pacquiao starts favourite tonight, but I’m going with Cotto to survive an early scare and take control from around the fifth and stop Pacquiao around the 11th in an amazing battle. If Manny wins, however, I’ll NEVER back against him ever again…. unless its against Floyd.
Off now to watch Andy Lee go up against useful Frenchman Affif Belghecham. I’ll let you know how that went. Hopefully the Irish can do the double over the French tonight!
Hey Dave mate, doing good thanks, still plugging away, trying to find a home for my latest bit of writing….no luck so far.
I love Cotto, he’s one of those rare fighters who matches up well with anyone, great for the sport it’s a shame one of them has to lose really.
I’m genuinely pumped for this one, it’s rare to get such a big fight where both guys are out and out action fighters, perfect recipe for a great fight. Too many mega fights in recent years have included either Oscar or Floyd, who don’t tend to get involved in too many classics.
I’ve got Pacquiao at around the same point you have Cotto but I’m gonna wait to bet online after the ring walks!! Cotto is great value if you fancy him to pull it off.
Good luck to Lee in a sec, pity about the footy though, hopefully you’ll catch them on a sulky day next leg.
Did you see the Samuels fight last night and the double knockdown? Classic!!
Meant to say, Cotto looked great at the weigh in, cracking nick, focused, bet his odds tumble come bell time.
Hey Haz, Lee won on points. He was in a bit of trouble in the last round though. If I’m being honest I don’t fancy his chances against Macklin if that fight ever comes off. Hope I’m wrong though.
That Samuels fight was amazing! I knew the fight would be great (both men are always in good scraps) but that was something else.
Look out for Alfonso Gomez v Jesus Soto Karass on the undercard tonight. That should be a belter. In contrast, avoid the Daniel Santos v Yuri Foreman fight at all costs! Yori Boreman, sorry Foreman, is a horrible boxer to watch. Rumor has it he puts insomniacs into a deep sleep.