Juan Manuel Lopez v Steve Luevano & Yuriorkis Gamboa v Rogers Mtagwa Preview & Prediction

By: Andrew Harrison

Jan 22 2010

Category: Uncategorized

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Boxing’s most exciting double act swing back into action this weekend, sharing headline status at the WaMu Theatre in NY.

Puerto Rican puncher, Juan Manuel ‘Juanma’ Lopez invades featherweight to tackle the number two ranked man in the division, the tough and seasoned Steve Luevano. Sharing the bill, flashy Cuban Yuriorkis Gamoboa, ranked tenth at 126 lbs, goes in with the man who gave Lopez hell last time out, the hard and gnarled Tanzanian, Rogers Mtagwa.

The idea here is to build interest in a Lopez-Gamboa blockbuster further down the line, to try and reach the masses and spread the type of excitement building within the industry since the idea of such a shootout first reared its head. One has to wonder quite how long the trailer will last before the big feature and whether Bob Arum, the man at the helm, is over egging the pudding with these double header showcase events.

Prior to their last outing, Lopez would have started favourite against the greener Gamboa, yet Arum’s ‘Latin Fury 12’ card in October evened the odds up beautifully. Lopez looked vulnerable for the first time against Rogers Mtagwa, whilst Gamboa looked sensational in scoring a stoppage win over Whyber Garcia. As of today I would find it excruciatingly tough to pick a winner, yet tomorrow evening may change this perception once again.

Lopez-Luevano

Lopez (27-0, 24 KO’s) is a powder keg punching phenom whose struggles last time out have prompted a departure from super bantamweight. There is a general theory within the sport that fighters who slim down to an unnatural weight, can wield extraordinary power early in fights as a benefit, yet can suffer down the stretch with diminished stamina and punch resistance.

This would explain perfectly Lopez’s hellish problems in the Mtagwa fight, when, after wailing away on his indestructible foe, ‘Juanma’ came within a smidgen of being knocked out. It made for a fight of the year candidate (and a winning one in my eyes), yet did nothing to enhance the Puerto Rican’s standing in the sport. I was slightly surprised at Lopez’s protestations that weight was the overriding issue here. Juanma didn’t appear to be big for a super bantam, could it be that this was the simplest way for the undefeated fighter to accept that he’d been beaten up for the first time?

“I’m not Superman” Lopez lamented post fight.

In Luevano, (37-1-1, 15 KO’s) Lopez will be facing a guy who himself struggles to make weight, which may mean that the smaller man is actually the stronger man on the night. Luevano, who currently holds a featherweight world title, is a tough southpaw boxer with a busy right lead and good movement. He began his tenure as WBO titlist in July 2007 by putting a whipping on Nicky Cook in London and has defended his belt on five occasions since. Despite his solid credentials, Luevano has stuggled of late and in fact, won his last fight flat on his back with his senses scrambled.

The opponent was Bernabe Conception, who back in August troubled Luevano early on with powerful punching, especially with the right hand. Luevano managed to make adjustments before boxing his way into the fight, utilising his good right lead to control his man from outside. Conception however always appeared to have enough kick in his shots to end matters, which he eventually did. Unfortunately for him and trainer Freddie Roach, it was a couple of seconds after the bell to end round seven, meaning he was disqualified. Luevano has also been on the deck in two of his other five title defences, against Terdsak Jandaeng and Mario Santiago, both times after fielding left hands.

Despite having his mitt raised last time, Luevano was knocked senseless (albeit illegally) by Conception and this will undoubtedly have affected his mindset in the run up to the bout. Doubt may lead to tentiveness, which may see him give up ground to Lopez early.

Lopez also will have doubt preying on his mind. He showed guts and a good chin against Mtagwa, yet he ran out of gas and caught too many shots flush in what was, rather worryingly, the first time he’d navigated the twelve round distance.

Luevano will have seized upon this and will be aiming to avoid Lopez’s power early before establishing his jab and coming on late in the fight. Lopez meanwhile, will probably be more economical with his shots in the fight’s first quarter, using range finders to feel his distance before punching with more devil as the fight progresses and any stamina doubts dissipate.

I can see both fighters opening tentatively. Luevano could be the busier of the pair in terms of punch output yet Lopez will be the one landing the bigger and more eye catching shots. Gradually, Lopez will begin chopping away at Luevano with classy combinations and despite stubborn resistance, Steve will be hit too hard and too often to be able to continue. Lopez should win in nine.

Gamboa-Mtagwa

Yuriorkis Gamboa, (16-0, 14 KO’s) just keeps improving. ‘El Ciclone de Guantanamo’ struck gold at the 2004 Olympics at flyweight before defecting from his homeland in 2006 to chase success in the pro ranks. Matched tough from the off, Gamboa has grown up in public, picking himself off the floor in bouts to triumph thanks to his fantastic blend of speed and power.

Gamboa reminds me at times of Philadelphia speedster Meldrick Taylor with his bursts of flashy, two handed punching, which is high praise indeed (Taylor is one of my all time favourite fighters). In taking on Mtagwa, he’ll be looking to eclipse Lopez’s effort in October, further bolstering his hopes of victory once the dynamic duo finally cross swords.

His opponent, Rogers Mtagwa (26-13-2, 18 KO’s) is a far better fighter than his record would suggest and the very definition of a man who can take a licking and keep on ticking. The Philly based tough guy’s effort against Lopez was extraordinary, wading through ‘Juanma’s’ punches like some ridiculous Hollywood bad guy pursuing the hero through all manner of fire and brimstone. He came within a whisker of victory, showing bull-like strength to barge his way in close before launching pineapples at his man with crazy abandon.

There are many, including Lopez, who feel that Gamboa’s speed and power will allow him to have his way with Mtagwa however I’m not so sure. If Rogers can put in a similar shift to the one he did against Lopez, I feel he can again cause problems for the unbeaten fighter.

I fancy that both men’s styles will make for a tough inside battle. Gamboa likes to work his way in close before getting off with two handed salvos, which inevitably forces him to square up on his man. As Mtagwa lunges forward to retaliate, there is the possibility he can catch Yuriorkis with one of his unorthodox humdingers, especially if Gamboa fails to protect his chin as he has been prone to do in previous bouts. There’s also the small matter of Mtagwa being rough as hell inside and with the pair bumping and boring together, we could see head clashes and cuts coming into the equation.

Despite this, I fancy Gamboa will at times be able to tee off on his man, dragging the crowd off their seats with prolonged barrages of shots. Rogers meanwhile will keep chugging forward with his head down regardless, hoping to hit a home run.

Mtagwa will wind up playing Jake Lamotta to the Cuban’s Sugar Ray and whilst he’ll again win oddles of respect, he’ll come up short on the cards. I hope he’s being paid well. Gamboa by unanimous decision.

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