Pacquiao-Clottey Preview & Prediction
Boxing’s latest phenomenon, Filipino icon Manny Pacquiao returns to battle this weekend in a huge welterweight battle against African iron man, Joshua Clottey. Held before a crowd of some 45,000 fans amidst the gleaming new home of the Dallas Cowboys in Texas, the result looks to be a foregone conclusion, which is strange indeed when one considers the quality of the men involved.
In Pacquiao (50-3-2, 38 kayos) we have the best fist fighter on the planet, a blinding combination of unusual speed and power. A frenetic action fighter, the ‘Pac Man’ seeks to discombobulate his opposition as soon as the bell sounds in often frightening displays of offensive warfare. He’s at his peak, he has the world’s best trainer in his corner and he appears still to be improving with each fight.
His opponent, the rugged Josh Clottey (35-3, 20 kayos) has been close to the summit of the welterweight division for a number of years now. He’s as tough a fighter as you’ll across in the sport, chiselled, mean and not averse to rough house tactics. His main asset is his defence and as he terms it, his ‘double guard’. This is where he tucks himself smartly behind a high shield, offering his opponents very little to shoot at, before countering with bursts of predominately left hand shots.
Clottey is also the first man Pacquiao has faced at 147 lbs, with previous bouts against both Oscar De la Hoya and Miguel Cotto taking place at catch weights somewhere between welter and light welterweight in an attempt to help level the playing field for the naturally smaller Filipino (Pacquiao of course began fighting some nine weight divisions south of welterweight as a light flyweight).
The Brooklyn based Ghanaian (seriously, how could that breed anything else but tough?) has an iron chin, good power and is extremely strong. Thus far in his career he’s been blighted by what he feels has been rotten luck.
Clottey was fighting well against the disgraced Antonio Margarito until hand damage struck. He had Miguel Cotto badly cut and looked to be on his way to victory last time out before bizarrely giving away rounds to the Puerto Rican through a lack of activity (a familiar criticism of Clottey). In perhaps his most notable win to date in fact, he put on a masterclass in showing how to shut down a southpaw fighter against Zab Judah. Despite this, he still almost came a cropper via technical decision after a cut he opened with a punch was ruled to have been caused by an accidental headbutt. Lucky, Clottey is not.
Despite excellent credentials, I offer Clottey only a marginal chance of victory here. Although he showed a fine knack in the art of whupping a lefty (lead foot outside his opponent’s, wicked left hooks driven to the body, lead right hands down the pipe), Pacquiao is not a normal portsider. In fact, Pacquiao is not a normal fighter full stop. There is a sliver of hope for the African though.
At times in his illustrious career I have seen glimpses of discomfort from Pacquiao once the going gets extremely rough. His last defeat came against the great Erik Morales back in 2005 after he suffered a horrendous cut in the fight’s first chapter, a handicap which hampered his boxing for the remainder of the contest.
There was a moment also in the rematch with Marco Antonio Barerra where the Mexican sneakily slugged Pacquiao on the break. Manny staggered into a neutral corner and looked in real bother for a spell, although he recovered quickly enough to see out a comfortable win.
What I’m alluding to here is that Clottey could find success by parking the Marquis of Queensberry’s rule book at the front gate by looking to rough Pacquiao up some. Freddie Roach has accused Clottey in the build up of being too free with use of his head and he’ll be quick to jump on any rough housing which comes his guy’s way. If it can gain Clottey even a foothold in the fight however, he could impose his strength and size on Manny and aim to swing the fight in an entirely unexpected direction.
This fight reminds me of an imperious Muhammad Ali putting on a glorious display of combination punching and foot speed against the Fort Knox-like defence of Ernie Terrell, back in 1967. Faced with Terrell’s high, tight and almost impervious guard, Ali used speed, movement and punches in bunches to carry him to a convincing points decision. Terrell’s obstinance saw him through to the final bell on that night and I believe Clottey, also with a point to prove (namely that Pacquiao can’t hurt him or stop him) can do the same.
One feels that Pacquiao will outpunch his man considerably and even if Clottey has the night of his life, you wonder if he’ll find fortune on the cards.
The story of this fight seems to be; can Pacquiao stop his foe? There aren’t many feats I’d back against him managing to accomplish although this time I shall. Some fighters just don’t get knocked out and I believe Clottey is of that ilk.
I urge you to bet on Pacquiao via decision (currently in the region of 7/4). As sure a wager as I’ve ever seen.
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