Thunderbolt & Lightfoot: Abraham v Dirrell Preview & Prediction
Showtime’s Super Six tournament finally judders back into life this weekend in Detroit, after having been blighted by problems since the first round of matches closed in November. Flint, Michigan’s Andre Dirrell (18-1, 13 KO’s) squares off against German based Armenian, Arthur Abraham (31-0, 25 KO’s) in a fight postponed from its original March 6th date in California after Dirrell injured his back in training.
The change in location and the announcement this week that all four officials will be Michigan men, raises one of my eyebrows all Roger Moore like and would appear to offer Dirrell somewhat of an advantage should the fight head to the scorecards. Of course, he has to make it that far.
I finally forced myself to watch a replay of Dirrell’s last bout for the purposes of this post, one which he lost on points to Carl Froch in Nottingham in October. Dirrell and his team, along with a good many decent judges, claimed the decision was ‘home cooked’ yet, once again, I scored it Froch’s way 115-113 due mainly to Andre’s negativity.
In the speedy switch hitter’s first high profile contest, he began quite well, employing plenty of slick movement against the more meat and potatoes WBC titlist. Then, in round six, after Froch had finally managed to land a couple of half decent punches, Dirrell began to unravel. Clearly flustered and uncomfortable at Froch’s roughhousing in close, he began looking for the floor, looking to his corner, holding excessively and complaining to the referee. He also fled, so much so that I thought for an instant he would be chased clean out of the ring.
To his credit, he came through this mini crisis, enough for me to be able to give him the majority of the late rounds however, one was left wondering what would have happened if Froch, who looked pretty awful at times, had managed to apply more pressure and land more punches than he was able.
On the same evening, some 600 miles away in Berlin, Abraham had just eliminated Jermain Taylor from the competition with a heat seeking missile of a right hand, crumpling the brave American just seconds from the end of their contest. It had been a slower paced fight than Froch-Dirrell, one which saw Abraham utilise his familiar crab like defence early as Taylor pecked away, using double jabs and body shots to try and unpick the lock.
As we saw recently in the Pacquiao-Clottey fight, a highly held, tight shield can be a frustrating obstacle to overcome. Whilst Clottey was largely submissive in that one though, Abraham will be aggressive in bursts, blazing out from behind his guard with destructive hooks. Dirrell’s tactics will be to keep Abraham in his shell by spearing him to head and body from range, avoiding his sporadic charges and then looking to counter with left hands once Arthur has finished swinging.
I’d venture that Abraham will need to be more active here than he was against Taylor and Uli Wegner may push him to start quickly, forcing Dirrell on the back foot from the off rather than allowing him time to compose himself and feel his way into the fight. It will be interesting to see how fussy the officiating is in Detroit. If Abraham begins to rough Andre up inside, could he find himself losing points as Dirrell himself did in Nottingham and Taylor did in Berlin?
I think this is a tough fight to call based on the fighters’ styles. One could quite easily envision the American racking up points from distance and keeping it close enough to nick a decision on the scorecards. On the other hand, it isn’t too difficult to imagine ‘King’ Arthur winning rounds as the aggressor and landing enough power punches to drain his younger opponent’s ambition.
When reviewing the Froch fight, I noticed that Dirrell would avoid Carl’s rushes by backing straight up against the ropes and looking to slide away to one side or another with his hands held high. It was during these moments that Froch was able to get a lunging shot in, albeit with minimal power, unable as he was to set himself correctly. Abraham, on the other hand, can hit like a jackhammer in such tight spots and will be looking to take Dirrell’s head off the first chance he gets.
I question Dirrell’s character should he come under heavy fire and whilst a fine athlete, I wonder if he has enough of a fighter inside him to overcome someone as tough as Abraham. A recent episode of the fantastic Fight Camp 360 gave me the impression that Dirrell is merely satisfied with having a place in the tournament and the pay cheques which come with it, whereas Abraham has a steely determination about him from which great fighters are made.
In an arena named after the great Joe Louis, who coined the phrase “he can run, but he can’t hide”, I go for Abraham to chase Dirrell down, landing an accumulation of heavy punches which will see Andre at first grinning, then running as ‘King’ Arthur pursues him unmercifully. I can see Dirrell looking for a way out of the contest after around 8 or 9 rounds yet venture he’ll hang on grimly to see the final bell after having been dominated by the sheer physicality Abraham will bring to bear on him.
The win will guarantee Abraham safe passage to the semi finals yet will leave Dirrell’s chances hanging by a thread.
Abraham starts as favourite and is quoted at around 1/2, with Dirrell available somewhere in the region of 13/8. I’d be inclined to stick with Abraham for the win and ignore the exact method of victory, doubling this with another result, perhaps the Guzman-Funeka fight, which I fancy may see an upset.
(picture credit: Howard Schatz)
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