Mayweather-Mosley Preview & Prediction
Earlier in the week, I presented a case for both combatants in this weekend’s welterweight mega match. In the best tradition of Perry Mason, and after a few days of marination to help sum up, here’s how I think it will all go down in Vegas.
After milling through the clues, I’m utterly convinced that if, physically, Shane Mosley was the same man here that he was a decade ago, he’d have been the perfect candidate to pop Mayweather’s perfect record. Floyd isn’t the super fighter he was at super featherweight up at this weight. His stature disadvantages him somewhat, in his adopted habitat amongst naturally larger men. The only lifelong 147 pounder he’s crossed swords with, the rugged but limited Argentine Carlos Baldomir, left him weary, emotional and with busted mitts post fight.
Facts are, though, Mosley is no longer the same man who emerged so luminously against Oscar De la Hoya in L.A. He’s 38 now, and whilst his power remains, his speed, athleticism and reflexes have rather naturally diminished somewhat. Not that you’d have noticed last time out of course, when he chewed up Antonio Margarito and spat him out like an irritating pip. If you stand there and if you’re hittable, he’ll take your head off.
The advancing years have not dimmed his motivation however; Mosley is keyed up for this one. He was similarly pumped before Oscar, before the Winky rematch and before he whacked out crooked Tony. All three were outstanding performances, despite the fact that Wright’s bulk once again proved too steep a hill for him to climb (nevertheless, as was the case against Cotto, Shane was just one round shy of earning a draw). When he’s up, you’re in for a torrid evening of fighting.
The line amongst the sport’s intelligentsia is that Floyd wins a decision, probably unanimously. Too young, too fast, too skilful and too clever. Mosley gets hit more than Floyd, who doesn’t get hit much, period. It’s probably the only way he can win, such is his opponent’s resolve and resistance (barring cuts or freak injuries of course).
Whenever a huge fight such as this one comes around, it will also spawn two diametrically opposed lines of thought from backers of each boxer, both of whom predict a decisive win for their pick. Those behind Floyd, are focussing on Mosley’s age, wear, tear and defensive lapses. They see Mayweather avoiding Shane as he throws his Hail Mary’s before picking him off and eventually overwhelming him with a blizzard of shots, cantering to a lopsided points win.
Those in Shane’s corner see the bigger, stronger and gutsier fighter getting to a man who has chosen his opposition most carefully in recent years. With Naazim Richardson pulling the strings, they can picture a monumental booting over of the apple cart in the twilight hours of Sunday morning. They’ll cite Marquez and Hatton as having been too small, Oscar as having been too old, Baldomir, Judah and Gatti as having been too limited and will figure that Mayweather’s comeuppance is imminent.
There’s also the Dougie Fischer equation. Fischer has backed Mosley to win this bout since before it was signed, utterly convinced he can replicate the prescient Ron Borges (who stood alone in tipping Holyfield over Tyson in ’96). There are few who cover the sport with insight like Fischer, so what does he see that makes him swim against the tide so bullishly?
“From my perspective Mayweather is beatable. I see that he is bothered by a good jab, that he’s open for the hook, and that he can be outworked”.
I agree with Fischer in some respects, in that I don’t feel Mayweather is as imperious as his opposition have allowed him to look. I thought Ricky Hatton, as agricultural as his approach was, managed to stay in the fight for a number of rounds before his lack of ideas saw him fade away. De la Hoya, who has always appeared to me to lack ring intelligence and imagination, kept their bout close enough for argument. Corley and Judah proved that speed and daring could pose problems before their pedigree let them down.
Mosley can intimidate Mayweather with an aggressive approach pretty early, one which Richardson may insist on, in order to firmly establish the crowd’s support behind his fighter. He needs to convince those in attendance that the upset is in the air. He probably won’t get too far with that as an ideology, and Mayweather will adjust, as is his way, to level things up approaching half way.
I believe, however, that Mosley can spin things his way again, by landing a hurtful punch or two which drags the crowd to its feet. I also believe that Mayweather will neither fall, nor crumble, but instead will fire back, just as he did against Corley.
The second half of the contest will largely belong to Floyd, yet Mosley will keep the heat on, banging home booming body punches as Floyd poses and parries, grinning all the while. He’ll also crawl all over Mayweather if he chooses to set up camp against the ropes, throwing hand grenades over the top and devilish hooks downstairs. As we enter the bout’s last quarter, Shane’s age will come to bear on him, his boxing will become ragged and he’ll miss wildly with haymakers as “Pretty Boy” picks him off, perhaps cutting him as he snipes away with his laser beam punches.
It will be the judges who I feel will knock out Floyd Mayweather. I have a feeling that Mosley will have his hand raised, perhaps controversially, after giving Mayweather the toughest and most competitive run out of his career. “Money” will cry foul and talk of retirement, only to fire up the rematch clause with talk of revenge.
Mayweather starts favourite at a too narrow 1/5 whilst Mosley can be backed with odds of 7/2. Mosley is an incredible 6/1 to win via decision and the draw, which is an attractive proposition in a fight which may wind up mighty close on the cards, can be grasped at 33/1 (just don’t go big on that one, draws rarely come around). Sky Sports televise live in the UK (coverage begins at 2am).
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