Return of the Artful Dodger: Mitchell v Katsidis Preview & Prediction
Kevin Mitchell will be aiming for promotion into boxing’s big league this Saturday, slap bang in the middle of West Ham United’s football pitch in the east end of the capital. Mitchell has made the play offs on the back of a recent spate of good form, which includes a notable victory over Colombian banger, Breidis Prescott.
The man blocking the doorway to the land of milk and honey is the all-action power puncher, Michael Katsidis. The Aussie tough nut was forced to do business on Mitchell’s turf after promoter Frank Warren trumped Brendon Smith in the purse bid shoot out. Remuneration for Katsidis having to fight as the away man, involves taking home the lion’s share of the spoils ($412,000), whilst Mitchell collects $103,000 for his efforts.
Mitchell has fought the meat of his career at super featherweight. “The Dagenham Destroyer” reigned as British champion and was looked upon as a game and busy little action fighter with a decent dig, before moving on to 135 lbs and hooking up with veteran trainer Jimmy Tibbs. This move, above all else, has revitalised his floundering career. The canny Tibbs, as he did with Nigel Benn, has tapped into a neglected seam of boxing ability, and has veered Mitchell away from the wild slugging and recklessness which brought him close to defeat against Carl Johansson in 2008. Kevin’s career ledger to date stands at 31-0 (23) and he is rated 9th at the weight by Ring Magazine.
Katsidis is the naturally bigger man, a veteran of blood and thunder encounters and a man hailed by many as the natural heir to the throne of the late Arturo Gatti. Although he describes himself as an ‘instinct fighter’, he can be better viewed as a straight ahead pressuriser, a man willing to walk through punches in order to land his own arsenal of fight ending blows. Katsidis has a record of 26-2 (21) and is rated first at lightweight (behind champion Juan Manuel Marquez).
From Greek stock yet hailing from the garden city of Toowoomba, Katsidis has been vanquished twice in the two biggest bouts of his career, against the criminally underrated Joel Casamayor and the former lightweight force, Juan Diaz. The scrap with Cuban veteran Casamayor, was a fight of the year candidate, one which saw Katsidis flattened twice in the opener, only to rebound by punching the champion (as per Ring Magazine) through the ropes and out of the ring in the sixth. “El Cepillo” managed to ride out the subsequent firestorm to register a tenth round stoppage.
The second, yet another entertaining and crowd pleasing affair, featured Diaz standing in the pocket with Katsidis. The Mexican-American would throw speedy, two handed combinations at close quarters before attempting to spin off his man, an intelligent fight plan backed up with liberal use of the jab, which carried him to a split decision win. Post fight, Michael bemoaned an injury to his right hand, yet in truth, it was his porous defence which had cost him, a familiar criticism levelled at him throughout his career.
Katsidis has rebounded since, with decent wins over Jesus Chavez and Vicente Escobedo, however, the latter of these proved a tough and gruelling encounter, which may well have persuaded Team Mitchell to seize their moment.
Warren is a fantastically shrewd and calculating operator, a man who doesn’t usually risk his cash cow (which Mitchell most certainly now is) if he isn’t convinced that the odds are loaded in favour of his charge. Britain’s numero uno matchmaker, will be hoping for another resounding and star making home win, one to compare with the breakthrough victories he arranged for Ricky Hatton and Joe Calzaghe, against Kostya Tszyu and Jeff Lacy respectively.
Katsidis has been in far too many wars than is healthy for a prize fighter. He is susceptible to straight shots, stands squared up at times and busts up considerably in bouts; cuts, swelling, bloodshed, it’s all in an evening’s work for Michael “The Great”. He can box with more skill than he’s given credit for yet, he’s predominately a hooker, a free swinging sluggerwho looks to impose himself upon opponents.
Mitchell’s tactics will be to move, to create punching angles for himself before striking hard to catch Katsidis on his way in. He’ll have been drilled to move off to one side or the other should he as much as feel his back skimming the strands, which is where Katsidis will be looking to pin him. He may need to stand his ground more than he was allowed to against Prescott, which will no doubt suit the Mitchell’s scrappy side to a tee, yet the modus operandi will be to pick his man’s pocket, like the Artful Dodger from Dickensian lore.
After weighing up the facts, I fancy we will be talking after the event about another piece of crafty matchmaking by Warren. If Katsidis can draw Mitchell into a free for all, into an old fashioned dust up the likes of which have played out many times under this part of the land’s patch of sky, then he can win. As good as Mitchell’s whiskers are, he won’t have been hit as hard as Katsidis can hit him, yet even if he’s dazed, I think he can survive to win the fight.
On his last visit to these shores, Katsidis thrilled fans in a real up and downer with Luton’s Graham Earl. After dropping Earl twice in the first, Michael looked to put him away in round two. Quickly starching his man in a corner, Katsidis steamed in to finish him off and was caught squared up with a crackling right, which very nearly ended the fight. He went on to outgun the brave Brit, however, he walked the tightrope of defeat that night, as he has so often in his fighting life.
Katsidis has roared defiantly throughout the build up that he ruins good men, that once they’ve been in with him, they’re never the same. A cursory eye over his record bears this boast out somewhat; Earl, Casamayor and Diaz appeared lesser men in retrospect after tangling with the man whilst the Filipino Amonsot, suffered bleeding on his brain following his war with Katsidis in ’07 (he has since returned with three wins in his homeland).
Mitchell, at 25 is approaching the peak of his powers (Katsidis is the older man at 29). He’ll have an excellent game plan mapped out for him by Tibbs and he’ll look to fight a well ordered and disciplined fight. His speed and power appear to be improving fight on fight, and he can steadily bust Katsidis up throughout the evening with chopping little shots before moving off to safety.With Katsidis though, you can’t ever hope for an easy night’s work and he’ll keep Mitchell’s fans on tenterhooks throughout as he bursts through the cockney’s defences with his patented, booming combinations.
Whilst I wouldn’t raise an eyebrow unduly at the sight of either man hitting the deck, I fancy the bout will go to the scorecards and with a boisterous home crowd cheering him on, Mitchell can nick a close and tremendously hard fought verdict with the judges, one which will launch his career into orbit.
Mitchell is favourite with Sky Bet at odds of 8/13, with Katsidis available at 5/4. You can back Mitchell on points at around 2/1 (very good odds) yet this weekend I like the 18/5 available on picking the following to win outright: Mitchell, Derek Chisora (over Danny Williams), Amir Khan (over Paulie Malignaggi) and Victor Ortiz (over Nate Campbell).
Coming next: Khan v Malignaggi & Ortiz v Campbell preview.
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