High Pursuit: Cotto v Foreman Preview & Prediction
Miguel Cotto enters the fourth and perhaps final phase of his career on Saturday evening in New York, up at a new poundage and with fresh help in his corner. The current star of Puerto Rican boxing takes on light middleweight world titlist, Yuri Foreman amidst the celebrated surroundings of Yankee Stadium in The Bronx.
After a frightful pasting at the hands of boxing’s man of the moment in November, the rapacious Manny Pacquiao, Cotto has prescribed himself a change of scenery; call it constructive action. As he teeters on third base, will he find himself picked off yet again, or can he turn back the clock and sneak home to score?
The man he faces is very much a fighter on the up. The WBA titlist at 154 lbs, Foreman is unbeaten in 29 (just 8 quick wins) and at the age of 29 appears to be at his peak. Originally from Belarus, he fights out of Brooklyn by way of Israel. A budding rabbi, Foreman revives memories of a proud tradition of Jewish fighters which include illustrious names such as Benny Leonard, Barney Ross, Maxie Rosenbloom, Abe Attel and Max Baer.
A tall and rangy hit and move artist, Foreman hasn’t recorded a stoppage win for almost five years and hasn’t ever stopped anything approaching world class opposition. Instead, he relies on being hard to find, superior movement and crisp, long range punch-picking. In his title winning victory in November over Cotto’s compatriot, Daniel Santos (on the undercard of the Cotto-Pacquiao battle in Vegas) he looked highly impressive, belying his “boring” tag somewhat by flooring his man in the second and final sessions.
At 5’7”, Cotto will find himself giving up four inches in height and almost half a foot in reach. He’ll also sport a naturally smaller frame; modest in size for a welterweight, he’ll be even more diminutive for a light middleweight, all factors which will make his new venture that wee bit harder.
One aspect which will aid his task on the other hand, will be the expert tutelage offered to him by expert resurrector, Emanuel Steward. The man he replaces, the inexperienced Joe Santiago, shouldered much of the blame for Miguel’s failed attempt to derail Pacquiao. Steward’s reputation goes before him, although his record has been somewhat patchy of late. His attempts to breathe new life into the careers of Vivian Harris, Naseem Hamed and Jermain Taylor backfired spectacularly; men whose careers had floundered somewhat and who, like Cotto, had paid top dollar for an instant fix from the Kronk maestro.
Cotto will look to make his low and compact style work in his favour here. Back in 2004, he battled the tall and rangy Kelson Pinto (like Foreman, just shy of six feet tall), chopping his man down brilliantly in half a dozen rounds. Forcing his way inside in a cool and intelligent manner, Cotto was able to fire off short punches which whistled home, a tactic which worked to perfection against his long levered opponent.
Pinto, of course, was more of a flat footed puncher than Foreman is, and the puzzle facing Cotto will be how he manages to pin Yuri down long enough to do damage or score points. One can quite easily envision Cotto chasing his man whilst being peppered from afar, steadily growing frustrated as each round and opportunity passes him by.
At a well worn and grizzled 29 years and after a blood and gut filled career comprising a 34-2 (27) record, the Puerto Rican puncher may find himself disheartened by an opponent full of vigour and ambition – this hardly feels like an opportunity for him to ease himself back into the fray gently.
Despite many wise heads tipping the underdog in Foreman, I keep reverting back to the idea that Cotto excels when he’s the man coming forward. Throughout his struggles with Torres, Margarito, Pacquiao and to some extent Mosley, Cotto was backed up for extended periods and forced to fight on the retreat. Here, he’ll be the aggressor, the little man but possibly the stronger man, the hunter rather than the hunted.
Whilst he’ll undoubtedly be less effective at the higher weight and whilst one can’t ever discount the beatings and scar tissue (both physical and mental) he’s endured suddenly catching up with him, I don’t see that happening here. As a light middleweight, I fancy Cotto will win a few and lose a few, as he brings his superior skill and experience to bear against naturally larger and harder punching foes.
In a tense and tight affair, I can see Cotto’s aggression and willingness to go to work on the inside trumping Foreman’s sharp work from distance. In a bout which may not offer fans in attendance the action they’d initially hoped for, Cotto’s willingness to fight hard despite his physical disadvantages should bring the crowd onside, a factor which can’t be underestimated when looking to sway judges’ opinions. I fancy Cotto will be made to work hard in gutting out a decision victory, one close enough for argument and one which will enable promoter Bob Arum to round ‘em up and do it all over again.
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