Safe Side Of The Ropes

By: Andrew Harrison

Nov 11 2010

Category: Uncategorized

4 Comments

Manny Pacquiao returns to Dallas this weekend to do battle with the biggest skuldugger since J.R. Ewing. Boxing’s one man franchise tackles the disgraced former welterweight star Antonio Margarito in an intriguing bout, one not without an element of danger for the Filipino superman.

The build up has been marked by controversy and spin. After being banished to the margins for attempting to fight with hardened hand wraps against Shane Mosley, Margarito’s selection as substitute for the reluctant Floyd Mayweather kicked up a furore. There have been reports filtering out of the respective training camps painting Margarito as a reborn killer and Pacquiao a lax champion concerned more with his multi-purpose ambassadorial role than the task at hand. Cynics have countered such claims, labelling them mere promotional gimmicks to help even the odds up in a fight which opened with an overwhelming favourite in Pacquiao. Dallas is the perfect setting for such a soap opera.

Paired with likeable trainer Robert Garcia, Margarito has utilised HBO’s lavish infomercial (Pacquiao Margarito 24/7) to plead for clemency and help soften an image which has been coloured as something akin to Old Nick meets Dick Dastardly. A week ago it appeared to be working some too. Margarito had torn through training camp like a man possessed, hell-bent on proving he was a legitimate high level performer rather than a cheat. Then fight week arrived.

In tandem with his training partner Brandon Rios, the “Tijuana Tornado” was rather despicably featured in a video viral mocking Freddie Roach’s medical condition. With a defining moment right around the corner, he’s been left to diffuse yet another inflammatory situation. Whilst Pacquiao graced the final presser looking his usual luminous self, Margarito, rumoured to have been on fight weight for over a week, appeared gaunt and drawn. The Mexican’s momentum seems to have overshot the runway.

As part of a round table discussion earlier in the build up, I’d given Margarito a chance of pulling off a momentous upset. With a 4 ½ inch advantage in height along with a 6 inch edge in reach, we were already entering upset territory before any extra layers had been added to the cake. Throw in the Mexican’s unusually purposeful mindset and his rampaging, pressure fighting method and the warning lights have been flickering uncontrollably.

There is little doubt that Pacquiao is entering into a bout set at an unnaturally high weight for his stature. The contracted poundage of 150 lbs neither suits nor flatters a man who once campaigned over three stones south of this place. Unable to grow taller, his calves appear to have taken the brunt of the load, now taking on the freakishly disproportionate appearance once would associate with a pro body builder.

At 32, Margarito is at an age where remarkable fighting feats are still within range. One of the finest welterweights of the last decade, he has beaten men such as Andrew “Six Heads” Lewis, Kermit Cintron, Josh Clottey, Sergio Martinez and Miguel Cotto and whilst he was pipped narrowly by the outstanding Paul Williams, the bout was a mighty close and bruising affair. A miserable man to have to face, he is an uncompromising pressure fighter, a real life Pacman. With an anvil chin and a prodigious workrate, Margarito rolls forward belligerently, looking to overrun, outwork and break his opponents into bits.

Pacquiao too is a volume puncher, yet when comparing the two stylistically it’s night and day. A one time buzz saw with an unhealthy bias toward his left hand, the Filipino dynamo has been moulded into a consummate craftsman by his mentor Roach. Lightning quick with otherworldly punch power, he’ll look to attack with waves of aggressive, multi punch bombing raids.

The younger man by nine months, Pacquiao is probably approaching his own personal tipping point. After a stellar career, decline seems poised to reveal itself, looking to latch onto a supreme fighting force heading into his winter. After an outstanding run which has taken him to the sport’s summit, one beginning with a revenge win over Erik Morales and ending with an exhibition like victory over Joshua Clottey via men such as Oscar De la Hoya, Ricky Hatton and Miguel Cotto, there’s a very definite sense emerging that the fat lady is waiting in the wings and mulling over her scales.

Episode 3 of the 24/7 series indicated that Pacquiao had abandoned Alex Ariza’s “strength and conditioning programme” a couple of weeks before the contest, much to Ariza’s chagrin. One can’t help but wonder what this actually means,  how this affects Pacquiao’s performance and if similar alterations would be required prior to a Mayweather match? Puzzling stuff.

There’s no real mystery behind each man’s tactical plan ahead of this one, though. Margarito 38-6 (27) will push forward, looking to employ the same strategy which crushed Miguel Cotto in their outstanding battle from the summer of ’08. He’ll attempt to corner Pacquiao before pulverising him with his outstanding uppercut and a debilitating body assault. Rather than the ring tornado his fighting moniker would suggest him to be, Margarito resembles a slow yet unyielding tide coming in.

Pacquiao 51-3-2 (38) will look to box from range, moving in and out with his superior speed of both hand and foot in order to unleash carpet bombing raids on the big guy before zipping off to safety. Almost identical in stature to Cotto (which is amazing when one considers that he made his bones so far down the weights) Pacquiao will look to employ the very blueprint the Puerto Rican laid down before he succumbed to Margarito’s relentless marauding late in the contest.

My opinion on this one has jack-knifed through fight week. For me, Margarito holds all of the aces. His fight plan is far simpler to execute than the Filipino’s and his physical advantages allow for even more leeway in applying it. He’ll be able to absorb Pacquiao’s shots whilst administering more punishment and landing more leather on the punching congressman since the great Juan Manuel Marquez managed to in their rematch almost three years ago.

Pacquiao’s strategy requires endless fuel, deft skill and a discipline he can appear to lack on occasion. It also requires a touch of genius and verve. He’s in for a white hot battle, one which will test his stomach and condition against a free swinging monster who will be looking to ram all of the bile he’s been made to chew on (unduly in his mind) back down the throats of his critics. With his hand wraps under more scrutiny than the Treasuries’ finances, he’ll be looking to legitimise his entire career in a single fight, one which has been under suspicion since the Mosley debacle.

In a fight of the year candidate, I expect a bruised and bloodied Pacquiao to emerge victorious via unanimous decision. Margarito will prove his point, yet a smidge past his best and possibly overtrained, he’ll come up just short.

Expect Floyd Mayweather to enter stage left before the ticker tape has stopped falling.

Pacquiao is favourite at odds of around 1/6 with Margarito very good value at 9/2 (yet his price is shortening as we speak). Pacquiao by decision seems well worth a punt at 3/1.

(Watch Pacquiao-Margarito 24/7 episodes 1-4 via the video tab at the head of the page. For the David Haye vs Audley Harrison preview, click right using the arrow or access via the archives tab).

*Photo credit: Chris Farina