Punch-Out!! Carl Froch vs Arthur Abraham Preview & Prediction
With the semi final slots already filled, one has to wonder whether this weekend’s skirmishes involving three of the remaining Super Six tournament fighters are accidents waiting to happen. Carl Froch tackles Arthur Abraham in Helsinki, Finland in a collision which doesn’t bode well for the long term professional future of either man. Elsewhere, tournament favourite Andre Ward faces a potential banana skin fixture, in a stay busy encounter outside of the competition involving Cameroonian wild man, Sakio Bika.
Froch, Abraham and Ward have been with us from the very beginning of an event which has seen Jermain Taylor, Mikkel Kessler and Andre Dirrell fall by the wayside. One substitute has come and gone in the shape of Allan Green, eliminated by another, the remarkable Glen Johnson. The only thing left to decide is whether Froch or Johnson will have the pleasure of facing Ward in the knockout stages, should the two originals manage to join the Jamaican there in one piece.
Both Froch and Abraham are looking to rebound after being saddled with their first reverses in the second round of qualifiers. Englishman Froch came up short on the cards against Kessler in a spirited battle on away ground, whilst Abraham got himself disqualified against Andre Dirrell in Detroit. Froch has managed to convince himself that he was the victim of a hometown decision, whereas Abraham felt he’d been cheated out of victory by the mysterious Dirrell. Neither arguments hold much water, yet serve to illustrate the desperation of both men to remain invincible in their own minds.
Nottingham’s Froch has a style all of his own. At 6’1” he’s a long limbed, superbly conditioned athlete, one who fancies himself as an elusive boxer, yet in reality, he’s nothing of the sort. After rising in class against Jean Pascal in 2008, he has proven fairly easy to hit, a deficiency which has uncovered hidden assets, untapped strengths which have unwittingly lofted him onto the world stage he always assured us he belonged. “The Cobra” sports a solid pair of whiskers, an unique awkwardness and a willingness to trade hell for leather with anyone who’ll stand agin him.
Abraham is the smaller man but probably the more powerful of the two. A former middleweight titlist, the German based Armenian defended his belt on ten occasions before making a splash at 168 lbs with a brutal final round knockout of Jermain Taylor, eliminating the American in the opening round of the competition. Taylor hasn’t fought since.
In his second round match he made his usual tortoise-like start against Dirrell, but his traditional mid rounds thrust seemed to jam in the chamber. In a surprisingly turn of events, Abraham found himself outboxed for long periods and even dropped by the quick handed Michigan man before he finally managed to pull himself together. His late rounds charge ended in disaster though, after frustration at his inability to pin down an in flight Dirrell, led to him cold cocking the startled American after he’d slipped to one knee.
Froch is on one hell of a schedule. On Sunday morning he will have faced, in order; Jean Pascal, Jermain Taylor, Andre Dirrell, Mikkel Kessler and Abraham and that’s before he even contemplates his guaranteed semi final match. Despite being the older man by two and a half years at 33, he’s relatively sprightly in terms of arguments waged. At 26-1 (20), he rates fourth at the weight behind Lucian Bute, Ward and Kessler.
Abraham is shooting for a title belt in his second division. Under coach Ulli Wegner, “King Arthur” tends to hole up behind a crab-like guard (think Josh Clottey) over the fight’s first quarter, scouting his opponent from a safe vantage point whilst looking to preserve steam for his spurt down the home straight. An explosive force, he’ll look to ambush Froch, countering Carl’s attacks with extended two handed barrages. At 31-1 (25), he rates seventh at super middleweight.
Whilst Abraham’s approach is a given, whispers indicate that Froch will look to box his way to victory. The logic here, presumably, is that Abraham will be susceptible to long range pot shotting based on his previous contest, and that cleverness and mental agility can overcome Arthur’s brute strength. I tend to agree, yet wonder whether Froch has the game and the elusiveness to carry out such a plan and if he would in fact be better served playing to his strengths.
Footage of the fighters coming face to face this week has been interesting. The normally unflappable Froch looks uncomfortable in Abraham’s presence. Something about his body language suggests that he’s not at all as confident as he would like us to believe. Has the loss to Kessler affected him more than we realise?
Abraham, meanwhile, seems to be chomping at the bit. His straight right hand can pay dividends for him when thrown over the top of Froch’s low slung left. He can also capitalise when the Nottingham man fires away with wide, lunging hooks. It’s unlikely to be as simple as that, though. Froch’s fitness and greater industry could allow him to outwork Abraham, who can be a little too economical with his punching for comfort. A concerted body attack would appear to be a shrewd move also; it’s not for nothing that Arthur hugs his elbows in tight when hiding behind his shield.
A potential fight of the year candidate (how often have we been saying that of late?) it could turn out to be a bit of an unsightly affair, with both men having shown the ability to frustrate their audience. Froch can appear ungainly at times and the way in which he dangles his lead left hand at waist level can aggravate, especially when he starts eating punches because of it. Abraham, meanwhile, can defend for overly long periods, leaving his opponent hitting gloves and arms for a few rounds while staking out Arthur’s inevitable emergence.
Despite this, I fancy we’re in for an entertaining scrap. Froch will attack Abraham from the off, looking to hurt him to the body and land with scything uppercuts through the middle of his guard. In a fight which could resemble the recent Nathan Cleverly-Karo Murat contest in Birmingham stylistically (a tough row which saw Cleverly wear down the Wegner trained fighter in 10 rounds), I have a hunch that the more compact and direct punching of Abraham will edge him home to a tight and contentious decision win.
Abraham is too short at odds of 8/11 for me, with Froch decent value at 6/4.
On the same evening in Oakland, hometown hero Andre Ward should have too much all round game for bruiser Sakio Bika. The African warrior is unlikely to be stopped and he can give Ward far more problems than he’s expected to, perhaps scoring a knockdown or inflicting enough damage to count as a scare. Ken Hershman and his team will be praying that the tournament favourite comes through unscathed. The competition couldn’t cope with another original getting injured.
Ward is an out of sight favourite at 1/9, with Bika out at 7/1. Ward on points is around evens.
*Photo credit: Howard Schatz.
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