A Leap of Faith: Paul Smith vs James DeGale Preview & Prediction
In a promotional tack as old as the hills, Frank Warren aims to supplant one of his veteran stable members on Saturday evening in Liverpool with his brightest new star. In Paul Smith, he holds the papers on a British champ whose career appears to have reached the peak of its trajectory. In James DeGale, meanwhile, Warren is banking on polishing up a diamond in the rough, one who can prop up his organisation for years to come, hence the trade-off.
Smith is still looked upon as the English guy from an American boxing reality show by laymen of the sport, despite having held the British super middleweight title since October of last year. In a tense turf war with fellow Liverpudlian Tony Quigley, Smith managed to grind out a decision win to grab the Lonsdale belt, breathing new life into a career which appeared to have stalled.
A popular draw on Merseyside, “Smigga” has been packing them into the shimmering 11, 000 seat Echo arena down by the docks. His pull at the box office has helped spearhead a fight scene which is on the up and up, allowing his brothers Stephen and Liam and the likes of local light heavyweight hitter Tony Bellew to benefit from his slipstream.
Another local derby formed his first defence in March, this time against Garston man, Tony Dodson. After a torrid opening, Smith was left teetering on the brink of defeat after suffering Henry Cooper-esque lacerations across his forehead and left eye. Thankfully for him, he’d had the foresight to hire the finest gash stauncher in the business in Mick Williamson, who somehow figured out a way to patch him up sufficiently to get him over the finish line.
After two bruising encounters against solid opposition, he now faces something else again in the shape of DeGale. The Hammersmith born prospect looks a potential star, yet after only eight contests (all wins, six quick), there are real questions surrounding his readiness.
DeGale’s arch rival George Groves almost came unstuck last month after leaping before looking against the more seasoned Kenny Anderson. The tough Scot had a similar record to Groves, yet he’d been acclimatised to the pros a lot longer and although his agricultural approach probably wasn’t anything young George hadn’t seen up to that point, his ability to exploit a leaky defence was. Groves survived a second round onslaught by the narrowest of margins to pull out a sixth round stoppage, but it was a mighty close thing.
At world level, we also witnessed one of the finest ever amateur fighters in Guillermo Rigondeaux attempt a similar sized leap up in class against hardy pro Ricardo Cordoba after navigating a similar number of fights as DeGale. Although he eked out a split decision victory, the decision to take off the stabilisers so early almost proved a foolhardy one, with many keen watchers feeling that his Panamanian opponent merited the win.
DeGale battled his way to an Olympic gold in China and after a heavy weather opening debut in February 2009, which instantly wrong footed him with domestic fans, he’s come along leaps and bounds since. There seems very little sense in analysing his record in any great depth, other than noting the usual suspects are present along with the useful Carl Dilks. DeGale despatched Dilks within a round in September yet despite showing some tricky moves and fast hands, it looked an odd stoppage both on the referee’s behalf and on the part of Dilks.
DeGale is quick and accurate, as one might expect, yet he’s been accused of cuffing with his shots on occasion and he can leave himself open with his loosey goosey style. He’s been battered into shape by trainer Jim McDonnell and he has a confidence which both feeds his performance and riles the paying public. Against Smith, “Chunky” won’t have a friend in the house.
Physically, DeGale is the bigger man and the more natural 168 pounder yet Smith probably holds the edge in power. Decent enough with his jab, the champion’s right hand can be ineffective as he tends to overshoot the mark with his punches. Smith will be hoping to adjust to DeGale’s swiftness early on before steadily increasing pressure as the fight wears on, hoping the young buck runs out of ideas, petrol or both.
I have a feeling that DeGale will dazzle in spots but will also find himself wading through treacle at other points along the way. I’d be inclined to side with the more tried and tested Smith, a bonafide twelve round fighter, if it weren’t for his tendency to cut up. DeGale’s quick and slashing shots would appear the perfect weapon to make Smith bleed once again and whilst his corner will do their damndest to plug any holes, being forced to operate through a red haze won’t do him any favours at all.
Look for DeGale to emulate the likes of Prince Naseem Hamed, Joe Calzaghe and Lennox Lewis (against Steve Robinson, Mark Delaney and Gary Mason) whilst steering clear of the type of disaster which befell Nigel Benn, David Haye and Kirkland Laing (against Michael Watson, Carl Thompson and Colin Jones) as he scores a headline grabbing and bloody breakthrough win via late stoppage.
DeGale is hot favourite to win at 2/9, with Smith a rather large 7/2 outsider. Scousers will be all over that price, hoping to boost the Christmas coffers with a long shot punt on the “Real Gone Kid”.
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